PDP crisis and the National Assembly: An endgame?

PERHAPS by the end of the year, the crisis in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) could rank as the most dominant and contentious issue in the polity. For more than four months, the gladiators have been at one another’s jugular.  The dogfight, which got messier last Saturday as the party split into two distinct factions, has culminated in threats and counter-threats by the dramatis personae.
Thus, the belligerent forces have kept expanding the battle grounds from the regular court rooms to other frontiers, even despite the trouble-shooting missions initiated by some distinguished personalities within the PDP family.
On the whole, the festering intra-party crisis has ripped open the various organs and structures of the PDP, leading to the ripple effects on other strategic institutions like the executive and legislative arms of government such as that has characterised the politics of Rivers State since the disputed chairmanship election in the Nigeria Governors Forum in May. The frightening dimension of the PDP crisis at the national level ostensibly necessitated the surprise visits of the Senate President, David Mark, to two former leaders, Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar, in Minna, Niger State, during the week.
The break-up of the ruling party that has led into two claimants as its national chairman - Alhaji Bamanga Tukur and Abubakar Baraje - is underscored by the number of members of the National Assembly elected on the party’s platform, who have teamed up with the New PDP. As of Wednesday, no fewer than 124 of the lawmakers had declared for the Baraje-led faction. But Alhaji Tukur, on Wednesday, threatened to declare the seats of the affected lawmakers vacant if they failed to withdraw their loyalty to the New PDP. On Monday, at least 26 senators and 57 other House members were reported to have pledged their allegiance to the Baraje-led PDP, which parades a former PDP National Secretary of the party, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola; former Deputy National Chairman, Dr Sam Jaja, as well as former Vice-President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar;  Governors Sule Lamido (Jigawa),  Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Abdulfatai Ahmed (Kwara),   Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers) and Rabiu Kwakwanso (Kano).
Tukur was quoted on Thursday as saying, “All persons elected on the platform of our great party at all levels who identify with these enemies of the oneness and greatness of our party shall have their seats declared vacant as required by law. We shall leave no stone unturned to ensure that such persons and indeed any other individuals who attempt to subvert the leadership of the PDP shall reap in full, the consequences of such actions.”
But the spokesman of the House of Representatives, Zakari Mohammed, who was one of the 57 House members that declared support for the New PDP on Monday, urged the embattled party’s top shot to be abreast of the provisions of the relevant laws “before jumping to conclusions.”
However, the PDP, under the leadership of Baraje, said it had asked its lawyers to press a contempt charge against Tukur for flouting the orders of a Lagos high court which asked both sides to maintain the status quo pending the resolution of the case before it on who should lead the party.
A statement issued by the National Secretary of the PDP under Baraje, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, condemned the press conference addressed by Tukur in Abuja on Wednesday where he threatened to sack members of the National Assembly who have declared support for the Baraje faction and arrest its officers.
“We have asked our lawyers to press contempt charges against Tukur because his statement was made in clear contempt of the orders of Lagos high court which three days ago asked both sides to maintain the status quo. We will ask the court to commit him to jail for his disdain for the law and the judicial system.
“We have always been saying it that Tukur represents everything that must not be seen in a democratic organisation. His statement demonstrates not just impunity, but also lawlessness and crass ignorance of the tenets of the law and democratic ethos.
“Tukur displayed his disdain for law and order with his threat to order the arrest of law abiding persons in a democracy.  We ask what powers he has under our laws to make that statement and what gave him the impression that Nigeria has become a police state where impunity reigns and citizens can be arrested at the whim of any power-drunk tzar. Fortunately, our country is a democracy under the rule of law and not under the rule of man. The police and our other security agencies cannot be used to further such agenda as being nurtured in the dictatorial mind of Tukur.
“Again, we believe only an ignorant person would threaten to sack elected Senators and Representatives for staying on the side of truth, justice and fairness. Tukur needs be reminded that members of the National Assembly were elected by the people of Nigeria and are not his appointees who he could dismiss like the minions in his private residence.
“He called the Alhaji Baraje- led leadership of our party impostors and we ask him if he does not know that the endorsement of our cause by elected representatives of our people across all tiers of government has vindicated our position that what we represent in the party today is what the people want.
“We challenge him to call out those who are with him in his clear journey to perdition even as we add that  Tukur should come to terms with the reality of the end of his reign of terror, impunity, dictatorship and lawlessness in our party.
“On our part, we re-assert our commitment to the consolidation of democracy, peace, love, unity, people centred development and above all, the rule of law in our march towards progress and development.  More importantly, we assure our teeming associates and well wishers that we shall conduct our party’s business with patriotism, resourcefulness, truth, justice and fair play as demanded of a political organisation with a vision and mission,” the statement said.
Also, 57 House of Representatives members on Tuesday, in a statement, said: “We, the members of the House of Representatives on the platform of the New PDP, hereby congratulate our leaders on the emergence of the new party.
“Although a sizeable number of our members who could not append their signatures because of their unavailability in the country will do so immediately on arrival, we the undersigned salute and appreciate the courage, sacrifice and resilience and patriotism of our leaders namely: former Vice-president Atiku Abubakar, and the Governors of Kano State, Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Aliyu Wammako (Sokoto), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Sule Lamido (Jigawa), Dr Muazu Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Abdul Fattah Ahmed (Kwara), and Chibuike Amaechi(Rivers), and other well-meaning and eminent Nigerians for leading the way for the emergence of the New PDP.
“We are also using this opportunity to condemn, in strong terms, attempts by some agents of the Federal Government to use state apparatus to witch-hunt some of these patriots for taking this bold and courageous step.
“As members of the House of Representatives, we call on the security agencies and other anti-graft bodies to be professional in their activities and not allow themselves be used by anybody, no matter how highly placed, for their political ambitions. Remember how you want history to judge your tenures.
“We won’t hesitate however to use all instruments of law within our powers as provided by the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended), to stop this and bring anybody found wanting to book.
“We wish to state that, by this statement, we pledge our loyalty and support to the New PDP under the able chairmanship of Alhaji Abubakar Kawu Baraje, the Deputy Chairman, Dr Sam SamJaja, National secretary, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinola and other members of the National Executive Committee.
“We congratulate them and wish them the very best as they steer the affairs of our party to provide level playing-field for all Nigerians.”
The 57 House of Representatives members who signed the letter are: Hon. Abdullahi Balarabe, Hon. Abdulmumin Jibrin, Hon. Ali Ahmad, Hon. Abdullahi Muhammad Wamako, Hon. Abdullahi Muhammed Rico, Hon. Abdulmalik Usman Cheche, Hon. Adamu Bashir, Hon. Ahman-Patigi Aliyu, Hon. Ahmed Zerewa, Hon. Aishatu Ahmed Binani, Hon. Aiyedun Akeem Olayinka, Hon. Alhassan Ado Garba, Hon. Aliyu Madaki, Hon. Aliyu Shehu, Hon. Aminu Shagari, Hon. Aminu Sulyman, Hon. Aminu Tukur, Hon. Andrew Uchendu, Hon. Asita Honourable, Hon. Bashir Baballe, Hon. Blessing Nsiegbe, Hon. Dakuku Peterside, Hon. Dawari George and Hon. Faruq Muhammed Lawan. Others include Hon. Gibson Nathaniel, Hon. Gogo Bright Tamunu, Hon. Haliru Zakari Jikantoro, Hon. Hassan Adamu, Hon. Hussain Namadi, Hon. Ibrahim Ebbo, Hon. Ibrahim Tijjani Kivawa, Hon. Issa Bashir, Hon. Kabiru Achida, Hon. Khabeeb Mustapha, Hon. Maurice Pronen, Hon.Mohammed Sabo, Hon. Mpigi Barinada, Hon. Muhammad Ahmed Mukhtar, Hon. Muhammad Ibrahim, Hon. Muhammad Sani Kutigi, Hon. Mukhtari Muhammad, Hon. Musa Ado and Hon. Musa Sarkin-Adar, Others are Hon. Mustapha Bala Dawaki, Hon. Mustapha Mashood, Hon. Ogbonna Nwuke, Hon. Rafiu Ibrahim, Hon. Sa’ad Nabunkari, Hon. Sani Muhammed Aliyu, Hon. Shuaibu Gobir, Hon. Sokonte Davies, Hon. Sufiyanu Ubale, Hon. Umar Bature, Hon. Usman Wada, Hon. Yusuph Dunari Sule, Hon. Yusuph Galambi and Hon. Zakari Muhammed.
Should the threat to support the Baraje-led New PDP see the light of the day, the ruling party’s status will be dwarfed in the National Assembly.   In the Senate, PDP had 74 senators as against the opposition All Progressives Congress’ 29; Labour Party has four while APGA has one. However, now that 26 of the PDP’s 74 have “ported” to New PDP, the party’s number has reduced to 48.
Should ongoing inter-party consultations germinate, the 48 PDP senators would become a minority because an alliance between the APC with 29 members and the New PDP’s 26 would translate to 55 against the PDP’s 48. There are a total of 109 members in the Senate.
In the Hosue of Representatives, the PDP’s hitherto advantage of 205 members has shrunk to 103 with the endorsement of the Baraje-led faction by the rebellious 102 lawmakers. Thus, any cooperation between the APC’s 135 and the new PDP’s 102 makes 237 as against the PDP’s 103. Two-thirds of the total House membership of 360 is 240, and there lies the danger for the PDP.
 Meanwhile, the chairman of the Board of Trustees (BoT) of the PDP, Chief Tony Anenih, in a statement in Abuja during the week, said he believed some of the aggrieved governors had genuine grievances.
“I believe some of them have genuine grievances, but I have hope that once the grievances are addressed, they will come back.  I am happy that the PDP has an internal mechanism for effective conflict resolution, and, at the end of the day, the problems will be addressed and the PDP will come out of the crisis stronger,” he said.

Power of recall
The 1999 Constitution is succinct in its provision on the process for the recall of any erring lawmaker. Section 110 states, “A member of the House of Assembly may be recalled as such a member if - (a) there is presented to the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission a petition in that behalf signed by more than one-half of the persons registered to vote in that  member’s constituency alleging their loss of confidence in that member; and  (b) the petition is thereafter, in a referendum conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission within ninety days of the date of the receipt of the petition, approved by a simple majority of the votes of the persons registered to vote in that member’s constituency.”
Another relevant provision of the constitution is Section 109. It states that, (1) A member of a House of Assembly shall vacate his seat in the House if -  (a) he becomes a member of another legislative house;  (b) any other circumstances arise that, if he were not a member of that House, would cause him to be disqualified for election as such a member; (c) he ceases to be a citizen of Nigeria; (d) he becomes President, Vice-President, Governor, Deputy Governor or a Minister of the Government of the Federation or a Commissioner of the Government of a State or a Special Adviser;  (e) save as otherwise prescribed by this Constitution, he becomes a member of a commission or other body established by this Constitution or by any other law;  (f) without just cause he is absent from meetings of the House of Assembly for a period amounting in the aggregate to more than one-third of the total number of days during which the House meets in any one year; (g) being a person whose election to the House of Assembly was sponsored by a political party, he becomes a member of another political party before the expiration of the period for which that House was elected.”
The section adds, “Provided that his membership of the latter political party is not as a result of a division in the political party of which he was previously a member or of a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored; or (h) the Speaker of the House of Assembly receives a certificate under the hand of the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission stating that the provisions of section 110 of this Constitution have been complied with in respect of the recall of the member. (2) The Speaker of the House of Assembly shall give effect to subsection (1) of this section, so however that the Speaker or a member shall first present evidence satisfactory to the House that any of the provisions of that subsection has become applicable in respect of the member.  (3) A member of a House of Assembly shall be deemed to be absent without just cause from a meeting of the House of Assembly unless the person presiding certifies in writing that he is satisfied that the absence of the member from the meeting was for a just cause.”

Tukur’s powers
According to some observers, some salient teasers arise given those two provisions in the 1999 Constitution. One of them is if Tukur actually could totally exercise the power and authority or influence the process for the recall of an errant lawmaker. Is there any antecedent of where a similar exercise was successfully executed in Nigeria, especially since the restoration of democracy in Nigeria in 1999? It will be recalled, for instance, that when some Alliance for Democracy (AD)] lawmakers defected to the PDP in 2003 or so, the frantic moves made by the party leaders to apply the constitutional sanction were frustrated through political meandering and legal complexities.
Some pundits have also identified the present political configuration in the National Assembly as constituting a major impediment to Tukur’s threat. In the past, the PDP had not been able to muster its majority in the National Assembly to its advantage on critical national issues. Accordingly, it is doubtful if the Tukur-led mainstream PDP could achieve such goal now that the PDP umbrella appears to be riddled with yawing holes, which other members of the National Assembly elected on the ticket of other opposition parties are likely to exploit to create further crevices in the PDP mansion.

Role of governors
Most of the aggrieved PDP legislators belong to the camp of those PDP governors that are up in arms against Tukur. From experience, the governors control the party’s machinery in their individual states as PDP leaders and would be prepared to deploy all necessary resources to frustrate any sponsored recall agenda of any lawmaker, especially from the North-East, North-Central and North-West, where most of the legislators represent in the National Assembly.
With the opposition’s strength in the National Assembly expected to be almost equal the politically dangerous two-thirds majority, will it be right to describe the ongoing crisis as the ultimate endgame for the PDP?